News Roundup: 3/15 to 3/22

Morningstar digs IDP, lower score requirements for nurses, a big TOEFL price cut... and more!

Morningstar Likes IDP Education

Morningstar recently covered IDP Education in its regular “ask the analyst” column. The analyst has a fairly rosy outlook, arguing that IDP’s present woes are mostly connected to student placement. He isn’t too concerned about English testing. The article notes that:

“IDP’s recent share price troubles – the stock is down more than 50% in the past twelve months – can largely be put down to concerns over the outlook for its placements business.”

This is followed by a great discussion of that business. I’ll leave that for readers to explore on their own.

Testing only comes up as a “bonus question” at the end. The columnist asks:

“Could Duolingo’s offshoot language testing business, which seems to be growing like a weed, impact the value of IDP’s core IELTS language testing asset?”

The analyst doesn’t think so:

“In short, [the analyst] doesn’t appear to be too concerned at the moment. While he recognises the immense growth and success of the Duolingo English Test’s low-price offering, this business is overwhelmingly skewed to the US market.

With just 10% of IELTS volumes coming from the US, this is very much a secondary playing field for IDP’s language testing business. In its core market of academic institutions in Commonwealth countries, IELTS remains by far the preferred option and Duolingo hasn’t gained as much ground.”

And:

“[he] still sees the IELTS test as enjoying a strong advantage over most other tests. With over 11,000 schools, employers and migration authorities accepting IELTS globally, students are drawn to this test due to its wide acceptance. Meanwhile, this large and growing pool of IELTS certified students and visa applicants makes it more attractive for institutions to accept, and so on.”

This is a reasonable take, but a couple of points are worth considering. First: competition from other tests (the PTE, most notably) could reduce volumes among students heading to the UK. Second: Duolingo’s offering is very popular among student heading to Canada.

CGFNS Lowers Required PTE Score

The CGFNS (Commission for Graduates of Foreign Nursing Schools) has rescinded its decision to raise its PTE speaking score requirement for foreign-trained nurses seeking work visas for the United States. The requirement will once again be a score of 50 (down from 63). This comes after other issuers of nursing certifications declined to follow the CGFNS's lead on the issue.

This isn’t an industry I follow closely, but it appears the score requirement was increased in December due to concerns that nurses were entering the USA with limited speaking skills. According to the CGFNS, there was “an alarming increase in healthcare workers holding a lower speaking score over the past three years.”

Discussions with the US Department of Health are ongoing, however. Those may soon result in a mandate that all issuers of nursing certificates require higher scores.

There is some interesting data buried in the CGFNS announcement. It suggests that Pearson has captured much of this lucrative market from the IELTS partnership, which once had a monopoly on this type of testing.

According to CGFNS, from 2022 to 2024, the percentage of nurses submitting PTE scores to the CGFNS increased from 7% to 50%. The percentage submitting IELTS scores decreased from 84% to 35%.

The required IELTS speaking score is currently 7.0. Some other tests are also accepted.

Note that the CGFNS does what is known as visa screening based on score requirements set by the government. State regulatory bodies have their own requirements that regulate proof of language skills in each state which nurses must also adhere to following their arrival in the USA.

The Guardian on Gigification at the British Council

Here's a story from The Guardian about the gigification of online English lessons provided by the British Council. It looks like the "British Council Teachers" who teach those lessons (including IELTS lessons) get a pretty raw deal.

This isn’t strictly a language testing story, but it at a time when the British Council is seeking a financial bailout from the UK government it is worth keeping an eye on headlines like this one.

I’m still waiting for the British Council’s financial report, by the way.

Big TOEFL Price Cut in Japan

The cost of registering for the TOEFL Test in Japan will be reduced to $195, starting April 1. That’s a $50 reduction. This appears to be a permanent change. On top of that, ETS has recently distributed a bunch of $10 discount coupons to test prep institutions in Japan.

Obviously, this adjustment will be welcomed by test takers. A prominent pain point for those seeking to take the TOEFL is that the test fee is denominated in USD (with two exceptions: India and China). This can be frustrating, as it is natural for most currencies to decline against the USD over time.

In recent years, this issue has pushed many test takers in the direction of tests with fees that are more likely to be fixed in local currencies. Such tests include the IELTS and PTE.

In Japan, for instance, the cost of taking the IELTS has been fixed at 27,500 yen since last year. That’s about $184. Needless to say, the $245 TOEFL has been a tough sell for quite a long time.

Japan has long been a key market for the TOEFL test, but anecdotal evidence suggests that the market is evolving. Ten years ago, about 80% of the students coming to me for help with the TOEFL were Japanese. They were mostly older students hoping to earn an MBA or LLM from a top school in the USA or UK. Over the past decade, that key demographic has shifted slowly but surely to the IELTS. Cost is not the only reason for this, but it plays a part.

New LanguageCert Campaign Kicks Off

LANGUAGECERT has just kicked off a promotional campaign called “Lives Retold.” It looks like the campaign will, through video vignettes, tell the stories of people who used the LanguageCert test to help start their lives abroad. The first is about Zhenyi, who moved from Liaoning (China) to Manchester after taking the test. I lived in Liaoning for several years (a long time ago), so I really dug this particular story.

Well-made content with good production values can put a human face to English tests. Beyond promoting products and attracting "likes," it can also build enthusiasm and community amongst the people that influence test taker decisions. Community building is something test makers used to do really well, but sometimes struggle with nowadays.

Big TOEFL Event Planned for Shanghai

ETS will host an event in China that may include announcements regarding major upgrades to the TOEFL program. Or maybe some other core ETS product.

Note that the major changes to the TOEFL were unveiled at a ceremony in China back in 2023.

According to a LinkedIn Post from ETS China:

Under the theme “Empowering with Expertise, Thriving Together,” we’ll unveil major upgrades to ETS’s core products and services and introduce new strategic initiatives for the Chinese market.

We’re bringing together educators, academic experts, and industry partners from universities, international schools, language training institutions, and study abroad agencies in Shanghai and beyond.

Do let me know if you make it to the event. I asked a friend of mine in China to attend, but he laughed at me.